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Comparative Study of Monsoon Rainfall Variability over India and the Odisha State

by K C Gouda, Sanjeeb Kumar Sahoo, Payoshni Samantray and Himesh Shivappa

Indian summer monsoon (ISM) plays an important role in the weather and climate system over India. The rainfall during monsoon season controls many sectors from agriculture, food, energy, and water, to the management of disasters. Being a coastal province on the eastern side of India, Odisha is one of the most important states affected by the monsoon rainfall and associated hydro-meteorological systems. The variability of monsoon rainfall is highly unpredictable at multiple scales both in space and time. In this study, the monsoon variability over the state of Odisha is studied using the daily gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD). A comparative analysis of the behaviour of monsoon rainfall at a larger scale (India), regional scale (Odisha), and sub-regional scale (zones of Odisha) is carried out in terms of the seasonal cycle of monsoon rainfall and its interannual variability. It is seen that there is no synchronization in the seasonal monsoon category (normal/excess/deficit) when analysed over large (India) and regional (Odisha) scales. The impact of El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the monsoon rainfall at both scales (large scale and regional scale) is analysed and compared. The results show that the impact is much more for rainfall over India, but it has no such relation with the rainfall over Odisha. It is also observed that there is a positive (negative) relation of the IOD with the seasonal monsoon rainfall variability over Odisha (India). The correlation between the IAV of monsoon rainfall between the large scale and regional scale was found to be 0.46 with a phase synchronization of 63%. IAV on a sub-regional scale is also presented.
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